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Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Australian Region Archive 1
98S.INVEST 98S.INVEST Now the Australian region is at it! A new invest popped up on the JTWC website in the basin. It has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours due to good poleward outflow. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, November 11, 2013 (UTC) 01U.ALESSIA Tropical Cyclone Alessia As the NHem shuts down, the SHem warms up. First storm of the australian region season, forecast to head eastward over Australia and pass south of Darwin as a TS. Ryan1000 20:46, November 22, 2013 (UTC) :3 more AUS storms to go until... ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:48, November 22, 2013 (UTC) ::Yeah, here comes Cyclone Dylan! Only 3 more names until we reach your name! :D Anyway, hopefully Alessia won't be too bad for Australia. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:21, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :::I wanna be a fish C5, but if I end up failing, then hey, at least I had a chance. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:57, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :::::Made landfall in Australia, pretty much collapsed. Doubt there was any noticeable damage. Ryan1000 14:40, November 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Alessia has essentially collapsed. Northern Australia could easily receive some damage, but not too much. AndrewTalk To Me 21:23, November 23, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Alessia Buh-bye. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:26, November 25, 2013 (UTC) : The JTWC gives it a low chance of regeneration, but I think it's dead anyways. I don't think it was too bad for Australia. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:52, November 26, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Alessia (2nd time) Steven, Alessia just proved you wrong! It has regenerated in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and it is doing very well. The BoM have Alessia's intensity at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/993 mbar (hPa) and the JTWC pinpoint the cyclone at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). However, since Alessia is about to make landfall over the Gulf Country, it likely will not get much stronger than it currently is. AndrewTalk To Me 12:38, November 27, 2013 (UTC) : Bleh. It probably won't do much. Should die soon. Ryan1000 18:03, November 27, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Alessia (2nd time) And per both the JTWC and BoM, Alessia has made landfall over Australia and perished for good. AndrewTalk To Me 21:44, November 27, 2013 (UTC) Meh. It looked like it was shoving my words down my throat this morning, but now it falls flat on its face not long after. Goodbye, my darling Alessia! I don't think you were too bad for Australia. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 22:50, November 27, 2013 (UTC) :Uhh, Alessia is still not dead yet. Per the JTWC, convection has flared up near what was her LLCC (low level circulation center), and she just moved back over water where low vertical wind shear is currently hovering about. Alessia has a medium chance of reregeneration in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 13:43, November 29, 2013 (UTC) ::Alessia seems immortal. When will you ever die, you little storm?! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:29, November 29, 2013 (UTC) :::It is no longer as likely that Alessia will come back once more. Her low level signature has weakened, and she is entering a region of moderate vertical wind shear. Consequently, the JTWC has downgraded Alessia's chances of becoming tropical to low for the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 13:25, November 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::And now, Alessia has really perished per the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, December 1, 2013 (UTC) 02U.BRUCE Tropical Cyclone Bruce And the 2nd Australian Region storm is here. Forecast to be a cat 1 as it moves out to sea. Ryan1000 16:56, December 18, 2013 (UTC) :60 kts (1-min) per JTWC, forecast to peak at 90 kts (1-min). Currently forecast to traverse hemispheres while moving north-northwestward at over 130 mph over the course of Saturday and land in India by early Sunday. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:06, December 19, 2013 (UTC) ::There must be a BIG error in that forecast map, since that forecast is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for tropical cyclones to do! :O Here's the real forecast! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 02:24, December 19, 2013 (UTC) ::::Yeah Dylan, there's a glitch in the WUnderground forecast track there, it's really forecast to become a cat 2 on the SSHS while heading out to sea. Ryan1000 13:27, December 19, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce Now a severe TC by the Australian scale, and it crossed into the SWIO. Ryan1000 21:42, December 19, 2013 (UTC) :Bruce is expected to reach 115 knots (130 mph) (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 140 knots (160 mph) per the JTWC. It looks like the SWIO is about to get its second major-hurricane strength storm. AndrewTalk To Me 23:30, December 19, 2013 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Bruce Now an ITC by MFR's scale. A little stronger than Amara, with 125 mph winds (10 min sustained) and 935 mbars. Ryan1000 13:52, December 20, 2013 (UTC) Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Bruce For the first time since Cyclone Edzani in 2010, a very intense tropical cyclone has formed in the SWIO basin. This breathtaking monster is at 120 knots (140 mph, 220 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/915 mbar (hPa; 27.02 inHg) per RSMC La Reunion. Per the JTWC, Bruce is at 125 knots (145 mph, 235 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of up to 150 knots (175 mph). The JTWC expects a peak intensity of 130 knots (150 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). For the record, Bruce is the strongest SWIO cyclone since Edzani, and its Category 4 coexistence with Amara makes this the first Category 4 duet worldwide since, I believe, Igor and Julia of the 2010 AHS. AndrewTalk To Me 22:04, December 20, 2013 (UTC) : There were a few other cases of cousins existing on other sides of the world, but yeah, this is the first time in a while that two cat 4's existed at the same time in the SWIO. Go Bruce, go! Ryan1000 01:46, December 21, 2013 (UTC) ::Bruce is oh so close to Category 5 intensity on the SSHWS. 135 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. Come on, Bruce! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:39, December 21, 2013 (UTC) :::Go, Bruce, go! Become a Category 5!! You can do it, buddy! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Happy ' 00:34, December 22, 2013 (UTC) ::::The deed is done. 125 kts (10-min)/912 mbar per RSMC Réunion, 140 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. First SWIO Category 5 by JTWC standards since Edzani of January 2010. It's also the strongest SWIO cyclone in terms of pressure since Edzani, and strongest in terms of 10-min sustained winds since the mighty Gafilo of March 2004. I'm not sure when was the last time there was a SWIO cyclone in December stronger than Bruce, though Cyclone Bento reached a similar intensity in November 2004. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:59, December 22, 2013 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Bruce (2nd time) It was nice while it lasted. Bruce is falling apart quite rapidly now; it's down to 90 kts (10-min)/952 mbar per RSMC Réunion and 110 kts (1-min) per JTWC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:07, December 22, 2013 (UTC) : Well, I'm glad it became a Category 5 and never threatened land! That is the type of storm that I always dream of. Bruce, you're the best. :) —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Happy ' 21:57, December 22, 2013 (UTC) ::It appears Bruce is beginning a Fujiwhara with Amara. This is the final act of 2013's sixth Category 5 storm (and second non-WPAC Category 5). AndrewTalk To Me 04:09, December 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::Great while it lasted, fishspining cat 5's are the best. They're beautiful on sattelite imagery and they never hurt anyone, so we can root for them to get as strong as we want. Ryan1000 00:46, December 24, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Depression (Ex-Bruce) Thanks for giving it an excellent run, Bruce; you and Amara were great early Christmas presents! Hopefully I'll be up to your par when my time comes in the near future ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:39, December 24, 2013 (UTC) 03U.CHRISTINE Tropical Low Per TCWC Perth, a weak tropical low has formed 590 miles (950 km) west-northwest of Broome, Western Australia. It currently has a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 27.77 inHg), but no wind reports are out the yet. The JTWC has not commented on the low yet. P.S. Dylan, assuming both Tropical Lows 05U and 04U become Category 1 tropical cyclones per the BoM, guess what the name of this low might be... :) AndrewTalk To Me 04:09, December 23, 2013 (UTC) :Even if I suck, better that than never existing at all. A re-Bruce would be preferable, though ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:11, December 23, 2013 (UTC) ::Not sure if it's going to be this or 4U, but one of them is forecast to be a significant threat to Australia's northwestern coast over the next few days. The storm in question, which would be named Christine, could end up getting pretty strong. It's something to watch out for. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:12, December 27, 2013 (UTC) This low passed by in a flash without getting numbered. AndrewTalk To Me 15:13, December 27, 2013 (UTC) : Well, it technically wasn't 05U, but the GFS sees this becoming a 984 mbar category 2 storm (SSHS), so this storm (future Christine) could be a big problem for the folks in Port Headland. It's not dead, it's just been sitting north of Australia for a few days. Ryan1000 15:21, December 27, 2013 (UTC) :: Actually, I'm not seeing this becoming much. If it does become Christine and then becomes a 984 mbar Category 2 threatening Port Headland, then I feel bad for the people in that city, since it could cause big problems there. I'm predicting only a weak TS from this (around 50 knts maybe?), but there's a chance we could see a hurricane-strength storm from this, —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Happy ' 17:43, December 27, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Christine Now it's named. Lost some organization over the past few hours, now it's only forecast to become a cat 1 when it hits Australia. Ryan1000 23:46, December 28, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Christine Christine is really taking off. It is at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/970 mbar (hPa; 28.66 inHg) per the BoM, making it a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC pinpoints Christine at 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 85 knots (100 mph), making it a Category 1 tropical cyclone per their standards. The BoM forecast a peak intensity of 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/951 mbar (hPa), while the JTWC expect a peak of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/90 knot (105 mph) gusts from Christine before it makes landfall over Western Australia. AndrewTalk To Me 02:14, December 30, 2013 (UTC) : Well, Christine has now made landfall in Australia. The JTWC has this storm at 75 knots, and it should weaken quickly as it moves further inland. Hopefully it won't be too bad for them. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Happy ' 20:19, December 30, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Christine Died over land. Ryan1000 16:21, December 31, 2013 (UTC) 04U.NONAME Tropical Low 04U Per TCWC Perth and TCWC Darwin, a weak tropical low has formed 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Darwin, Northern Territory. It currently has a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa; 27.74 inHg), but there are no wind reports yet. The JTWC has yet to comment on this low. AndrewTalk To Me 04:09, December 23, 2013 (UTC)